The Wolf Den #1210 - Summer Is Right Around The Corner
What will the market do?
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In This Issue:
Summer is Right Around The Corner
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
US Stock Futures Extend Gains in Jobs-Focused Week
Pressure Is Building On The Senate To Pass The GENIUS Act
Meta Shareholders Decide Against Bitcoin
Twenty One Capital Is Quickly Accumulating Bitcoin
The Next Big Bitcoin Boom? Follow The Crypto Treasuries Rush
Summer is Right Around The Corner
Summer is just a couple of weeks away, and honestly, the market isn’t looking too bad right now. If you’ve been reading The Wolf Den for a while, you know I don’t rely on fancy models or over-engineered systems to gauge the market – I go by gut. Not in some mystical or pseudo-scientific sense, but because I’ve spent enough time watching the market breathe that I can feel when something’s off.
It helps that I come from a trading background. So when I spot things like a massive bearish divergence on the monthly chart, shrinking breadth while indexes push to new highs, or volatility quietly picking up in the background – my instincts light up.
Right now, though, those instincts are calm. Maybe it’s the quiet before the storm – or maybe it’s a rare moment where we can actually enjoy watching asset prices this summer without worrying about the old adage: “sell in May and go away.” Time will tell, but for now, I’m leaning toward the latter.
Historically, summer tends to bring a slowdown. From May through October, markets usually see lower average returns and reduced trading volumes. Why? A mix of factors: institutional players take vacations, trading desks thin out, earnings reports slow to a trickle (especially compared to Q4), and even policymakers tend to go quiet – let’s face it, they’re old and love their summers. Add in lighter consumer spending and thinner participation, and you get the classic summer lull.
But remember – this isn’t a law. If it were that easy, everything would sell off in May and rally back in the fall. Markets aren’t that predictable. If anything, patterns like these get front-run and arbitraged away. Sure, summer tends to be slow, but that’s not always the case. We’ve seen surprise rallies sparked by macro headlines, policy shifts, or sheer momentum. Sometimes, the selling everyone expects in May doesn’t show up until September. Seasonality is a lens – not a map. Markets follow capital, not calendars.
And since we’re mostly focused on crypto here – things are actually looking pretty good.
On June 4, 2024, Bitcoin closed at $70,567. Since then, performance has held up – but we know Bitcoin’s capable of more.
Ethereum, meanwhile, closed at $3,812 that day. It still has ground to cover – and so do altcoins. But if Bitcoin grinds higher through the summer, this could be a very strong stretch for the altcoin market. If the Fed finally cuts rates on top of that? Buckle up.
Let’s zoom out for a second.
Remember when Goldman Sachs was confidently predicting a recession? Since then, the odds of a U.S. recession have plunged – down roughly 35% and now hovering around 30%. That shift alone might be the most bullish macro metric we’ve got. JPMorgan and Barclays were also on the doom train. Just a friendly reminder that the biggest institutions – the ones supposedly full of geniuses – are just as fallible as the rest of us.
The futures market is currently pricing in rate cuts for September – right at the tail end of summer. If Bitcoin stays steady and altcoins perform well over the next few months, a confirmed rate cut could be a powerful final catalyst. Then again, altcoins might front-run that news entirely. The real question is whether they merely reclaim previous highs or break through to new ones before the cut happens. That will tell us how much fuel is actually left in the tank when the news finally drops.
Gold has continued its steady march – which I see as the perfect precursor to a Bitcoin rally. One of the longest-standing ratios I’ve tracked is gold’s market cap versus Bitcoin’s. With gold priced at $3,371, its market cap sits at $22.715 trillion. Bitcoin, at $105K, has a market cap of $2.1 trillion. That’s still a more than 10:1 gap between the two.
I don’t expect that ratio to flip this cycle – but I do believe Bitcoin will eventually overtake gold, likely within the next decade or so. For this cycle, I could see the ratio narrowing to 5:1.
The S&P 500 is making its way back toward 6,000 – a level that once felt like a stretch and one the index has only managed to hold for about three months in total. It’s a testament to the market’s resilience, despite everything thrown its way: Trump’s tariff tantrums, recession fears earlier this year, and persistent geopolitical tensions. Even Trump’s public battles with the Fed have been largely ignored by investors. Through it all, equities have kept climbing – a reminder that momentum and optimism often outlast the noise.
The VIX hasn’t just cooled off – it’s slid down a mountain. Now sitting at 17.78, it’s a far cry from the panic levels earlier this year when it spiked above 50. That kind of drop shows just how much fear has drained out of the market. Whether that reflects complacency or confidence is up for debate, but one thing’s clear: volatility is no longer the dominant story.
The U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield remains elevated, but at least it’s no longer knocking on the door of 5%. For now, it’s holding in a range that feels high – but manageable. Staying below that psychological threshold is giving markets some breathing room, especially for equities and risk assets. It’s not exactly a green light, but it’s far from the red zone we were flirting with not long ago. Maybe we’re just settling into a new normal of elevated yields – and if that’s the case, the market will bake it in, adjust, and carry on. Markets adapt, and as long as yields stabilize, that adjustment becomes a whole lot easier.
The Fear & Greed Index is barely tipping into ‘Greed.’ I’m not the biggest fan of this metric – it can feel off or lagging – but this version isn’t for crypto, which tends to break often and swing wildly. That gives it a bit more credibility here. Right now, we’re in a sweet spot: just brushing into greed, with plenty of room before we hit anything close to ‘extreme.’ It’s the kind of setup where sentiment can keep building without flashing major warning signs – at least not yet.
To steer toward crypto – this just happened yesterday:
It turned out to be false, but still – it feels like every week Trump is tied to something crypto-related: hosting gala dinners for his meme coin, Trump Media teasing a Bitcoin treasury, or World Liberty Financial announcing a wallet – all while rumors swirl (and get debunked) about a so-called Trump wallet.
It’s a strong sign that Trump and his circle continue to show vocal support for crypto. Is it a conflict of interest? Absolutely. Could he change his mind? Of course – this is Trump we’re talking about. But for now, his backing gives the industry a powerful political tailwind, and markets tend to respond well to that kind of alignment. As long as the tone stays pro-crypto, the momentum is hard to ignore.
Had Joe Biden or Kamala Harris been elected, I believe progress – especially for altcoins – would be far worse off right now. We also have to consider that the SEC recently underwent a leadership change, and major players are only just beginning to recalibrate. These shifts don’t play out overnight; they take months to fully materialize.
I’m feeling good about the summer. Even if things move slowly, the setup feels promising. The environment isn’t overheated, and that gives assets room to move. Of course, that could change in an instant – an unexpected conflict, a major global headline, or a sharp sentiment shift – but at this point, it feels like it would take more for the summer to go poorly than for it to go well.
That’s a good place to be.
Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis
DAILY CHART
Nothing meaningful has changed with either bitcoin or altcoins since I shared charts yesterday. We are ranging for the moment.
US Stock Futures Extend Gains in Jobs-Focused Week
U.S. stock futures extended their climb as investors await more labor market data this week, bolstered by surprisingly resilient jobs numbers. The S&P 500 posted back-to-back gains for the first time since mid-May, and global equities hit a record high, thanks to strength in both European and Asian markets. Despite earlier fears that tariffs and trade tensions under the Trump administration would weigh heavily on employment, the labor market has so far defied expectations – providing a key source of optimism for investors.
Markets are now looking ahead to Wednesday’s ADP private-sector employment report and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data for further confirmation of the economy’s strength. Traders are betting on minimal movement from the S&P 500 following the jobs print, with the smallest implied swing since February. It’s a sign that volatility has cooled and investor anxiety has eased – at least for now.
Still, risks remain. Trump’s late-night social media post casting doubt on trade negotiations with Chinese leader Xi Jinping reminded markets that geopolitical tensions are far from resolved. Strategists warn that the lack of clarity, combined with fully valued markets, makes positioning tricky. While equities have bounced back from April lows, the recovery has been uneven, with European and Asian stocks now leading the pack.
In corporate news, Nvidia rose 0.7% in premarket trading after reclaiming its title as the world’s most valuable company from Microsoft. The broader “Magnificent 7” tech stocks continue to drive earnings growth, reinforcing investor interest in large-cap U.S. tech. Elsewhere, Chart Industries and Flowserve are reportedly set to merge in a $19 billion all-stock deal. Wells Fargo shares also gained after the Fed lifted an asset cap that had restricted the bank’s size for over seven years.
Other notable headlines include China potentially placing a massive aircraft order with Airbus, Walmart laying off temporary workers in Florida, and CrowdStrike sliding after issuing weaker-than-expected revenue guidance. Brookfield Asset Management announced plans to invest nearly $10 billion into AI infrastructure in Sweden over the next 10 to 15 years, while Franklin Templeton is expanding its footprint in private credit with a majority stake in Apera Asset Management.
All told, while investors remain cautiously optimistic, the coming days of jobs data and geopolitical developments will be crucial in determining whether the current rally has legs – or is simply a pause before the next wave of volatility.
Stocks
The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.4% as of 11:46 a.m. London time
S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%
Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.1%
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.9%
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 1.2%
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
The euro was little changed at $1.1377
The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 144.22 per dollar
The offshore yuan was little changed at 7.1902 per dollar
The British pound was little changed at $1.3521
Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin was little changed at $105,786.83
Ether rose 0.9% to $2,640.39
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.45%
Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.52%
Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.64%
Commodities
Brent crude was little changed
Spot gold was little changed
Pressure Is Building On The Senate To Pass The GENIUS Act
Crypto lobbyists – including the Blockchain Association, Crypto Council for Innovation, Digital Chamber, and DeFi Education Fund – are urging Congress to move quickly on the GENIUS Act, a major stablecoin bill. They warn that unrelated add-ons, like a proposed amendment on credit card swipe fees, could derail its momentum. The GENIUS Act has already cleared key Senate hurdles with bipartisan support, and Democrats have since added stricter consumer protections and anti-fraud measures. It passed a procedural vote 66–32 on both May 19 and June 2.
Backed by Senators Cynthia Lummis and Kirsten Gillibrand, the bill would require stablecoin issuers to register with regulators and hold secure reserves. With the stablecoin market now worth around $250 billion, supporters argue that clear regulation is overdue. Crypto industry groups spent more than $119 million on advocacy last year, and analysts now see a strong 60–65% chance the bill becomes law – far higher than the competing credit card fee proposal.
A statement from the lobbyists includes the quote: “As the bill continues through the amendment process, we respectfully urge lawmakers to remain committed to its central goal: providing a targeted and comprehensive approach to stablecoin oversight.”
Meta Shareholders Decide Against Bitcoin
As of now, it’s not looking likely that Meta will add Bitcoin to its balance sheet anytime soon. Despite being the sixth-largest company in the world – trailing only NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet – Meta’s shareholders just voted overwhelmingly against it. A staggering 95% rejected the proposal to hold Bitcoin on the balance sheet, signaling that institutional conservatism still runs deep, even in a company rooted in the digital age.
The numbers are blurry, here’s the breakdown:
For: 3,916,871 (0.08%)
Against: 4,980,828,562 (95.82%)
Abstentions: 8,857,588 (0.17%)
Broker Non-Votes: 204,772,865 (3.94%)
A quick look at Meta’s ownership reveals why a Bitcoin balance sheet move is unlikely – at least for now. Roughly 80% of Meta’s shares are held by institutional investors, including giants like Vanguard, BlackRock, and Fidelity. Meanwhile, Mark Zuckerberg owns about 13.4%–13.5% of the total shares. But thanks to Meta’s dual-class share structure, he controls around 61.9% of the company’s voting power.
That means if Zuckerberg decided tomorrow to push for Bitcoin on Meta’s balance sheet – and used his influence to sway the board and key investors – it could absolutely happen. Which brings us back to the video linked above: Matt Cole leaving a voicemail for Zuckerberg, urging him to buy Bitcoin. It might end up being the smartest call he ever returns. As Bitcoin continues to climb, more CEOs will start paying attention – and some may end up buying in at far higher prices.
Twenty One Capital Is Quickly Accumulating Bitcoin
Twenty One Capital is now just 12,000 BTC away from overtaking mining giant Marathon Digital Holdings – and it’s only been a little over a month since the firm launched. (The image above isn’t real-time – Twenty One currently holds 37,229 BTC.) More Bitcoin is likely inbound, as the company originally aimed to launch with 42,000 BTC and hasn’t hit that target yet. So all the posts you’re seeing about Tether sending Bitcoin to Twenty One? Most likely just part of reaching that initial allocation.
What’ll be interesting is whether Twenty One – backed by Cantor, Tether, Bitfinex, and SoftBank – can outpace Strategy, which already has all of its purchasing infrastructure live and trading on the open market. My guess? We won’t have a clear picture for another 10 weeks or so, assuming both firms continue buying at a steady clip.
The Next Big Bitcoin Boom? Follow The Crypto Treasuries Rush
I’m joined by my friends from Arch Public, Andrew Parish and Tillman Holloway, for a no-filter conversation on everything crypto, markets, and what’s coming next. From Bitcoin treasuries to institutional plays, we break down the trends you need to watch. Don’t miss this deep dive with some of the sharpest minds in the space.
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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.