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In This Issue:

1. The Break-Even Bull Run

2. Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis

3. Stocks, Dollar Drop

4. Ukraine May Let Central Bank Hold Bitcoin In National Reserves

5. Stripe Plans To Buy Crypto Wallet Privy

6. Bank of America Is Launching A Stablecoin

7. GameStop Wants More Bitcoin - LFG!

8. He Put 80% Into Bitcoin, Now He’s Calling Out The Government | John Deaton

The Break-Even Bull Run

Crypto investors dream of opening their portfolio and seeing a 10x. That’s the fantasy.

Always has been.

But lately, it feels like the real dream – more than generational wealth or a moonshot – is just to break even on everything that isn’t Bitcoin.

You can feel it everywhere.

I saw it firsthand at the Bitcoin conference, in conversations that were supposed to be all about Bitcoin, yet somehow kept drifting back to altcoin pain. You see it on X, where tribalism and infighting have cooled a bit – mostly because alts have finally started moving. And you hear it in how people talk about their portfolios: not with excitement, but with exhaustion. They’re not chasing the next big thing. They’re clawing their way back to neutral.

Have you noticed the silence, too? All the “100x,” “We’re so early,” “I’m never selling” talk has faded. I still lean into it sometimes – just yesterday I compared Ethereum to the early internet – but more often I hear people asking: “Do you think I’ll ever get back to even?”

That question tells you two things:

1. They don’t own enough Bitcoin.

2. There’s still doubt in the market – and that’s bullish.

Let’s start with the Bitcoin piece. If someone’s main concern is getting back to even, they probably didn’t stack enough BTC. Learn that lesson now. Bitcoin doesn’t require perfect timing. It just works.

I say that as someone who sees dozens of pitches from founders every week. Some are innovative. Some are brilliant. But after years of chasing shiny things, I’ve realized this: 99% of the time, buying Bitcoin and doing nothing beats trying to outsmart the market. With Bitcoin, I don’t wonder if I sold too early. I don’t check if I missed the exit. I just hold.

Now let’s talk about doubt.

Doubt is not bearish. It’s the mortar in the wall of worry, the very thing that healthy bull markets climb. When you see fear and hesitation baked into price action – when people are buying not with blind faith but with cautious optimism – that’s when the rally is real. Euphoria is fragile. Skepticism builds structure.

Doubt means there’s still time left in this bull run. And time is the most precious thing a bull market can give you.

The break-even mentality also reveals another truth: people didn’t buy the dip. At least not aggressively. The more you DCA on the way down, the less you worry about getting back to even on the way up – because your average entry is lower and every uptick feels like progress. Those who missed the bottom will have to buy back in later, at higher prices, right around the moment they realize they’ve been left behind.

So… will you get back to even?

My answer: It depends.

For most altcoin holders, breakeven probably doesn’t mean new all-time highs – but it’s somewhere in the ballpark. So let’s check the scoreboard:

• ETH: Needs +72.67%

• SOL: +80.36%

• XRP: +66.95%

• ADA: +341%

• SUI: +56.43%

• TON: +153.23%

• LTC: +319.23%

Bitcoin, BNB (which hit a new high last December), and Tron (which keeps grinding higher) are exceptions. The rest? Still stuck in the chase.

And if I didn’t mention your coin… it’s probably too small or redundant. Let’s rip the band-aid off:

Coins like LTC, ADA, LINK, AVAX, XLM, DOT, NEAR – the old-school crowd – may never return to their glory days. A 60%–80% drawdown is tough. A 90%–95% drop is mathematically brutal. You need a 10x just to get back to zero – and that assumes retail comes back in full force. It usually doesn’t.

Worse yet, if the community is working harder to hype the token than the team is to deliver the roadmap, that’s a problem. There’s not enough capital to save every project. Capital is flowing to where there’s innovation or proven strength: Ethereum, Solana, XRP, Tron, BNB. New players like Bittensor, Hyperliquid, and Sui are capturing attention. (That’s not an endorsement – just an observation.)

Could there be an altcoin resurrection that brings everything back? Sure. Crypto is weird like that. XRP looked dead, then suddenly wasn’t. It happens. But don’t bank on it. Hope is not a strategy.

This break-even vibe is everywhere now. It’s on X. It’s in Telegram groups. It was even at Bitcoin Vegas. People who used to model out 50x gains are now calculating recovery paths. The goalposts didn’t move – they got dragged all the way back to square one.

But that’s not bearish. It might actually be a bottoming signal. Emotionally, if not financially.

This isn’t about hype anymore. It’s about fundamentals. Solid teams. Lasting infrastructure. Investors are asking different questions now – less “What’s next?” and more “What’s real?” That’s the kind of mindset that keeps builders focused and projects grounded. That kind of pressure doesn’t destroy projects – it makes them better. It pushes them to ship, not shill.

Ethereum is a perfect example. Yesterday’s piece was all about its next leg. But today, I wanted to zoom out – to look at how investor psychology is shifting across the board. This isn’t just about one token. It’s about a market growing up in real time.

The moment investors feel truly satisfied with their coin’s price – that’s when I get nervous. With Ethereum, most are hoping to hit the old ATH near $4,800. But satisfaction probably won’t kick in until $6K, maybe $7K. Even that might not do it. Bitcoin has raised expectations. Now altcoin holders want not just recovery – but redemption.

A break-even point is coming.

For some, it’ll feel like relief. For others, regret – that they didn’t buy more when things were scary. But for a few… it’ll be the start of something much bigger. The moment their conviction pays off.

And if history is any guide, that’s when the real gains begin.

In other brief news, this happened yesterday:

This is the single most important piece of legislation on the Congressional docket right now - one that will have a serious, material impact on the entire crypto space. Clearing this hurdle would also allow more attention and momentum to shift toward the U.S. buying Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Thoughts And Analysis

DAILY CHART

Today, I asked ChatGPT for a quick analysis of the Bitcoin chart. Not bad.

Bitcoin may be forming a lower high on the daily chart, with the most recent rally stalling at $110,000 – just below the previous high near $112,000. That failure to reclaim the prior high is an early sign of weakening momentum and suggests the strong uptrend that’s been in place since April might be losing steam.

The critical level now is $100,000. That’s the most recent swing low, and it serves as the key structural support in this current move. A daily close below that level would confirm a lower high–lower low sequence, shifting the short-term trend from bullish to neutral or even bearish. If that happens, downside targets open up around $97,000 – the next clear support – followed by $95,500, where the rising 200-day moving average now sits.

Momentum indicators support this caution. RSI is trending down and making lower highs, showing a loss of bullish strength. Volume has also declined during recent rallies, hinting at buyer exhaustion rather than healthy consolidation.

For the bulls to retain control, the 50-day moving average near $103,000 needs to hold. If that level fails, a test of $100,000 is likely. On the flip side, a strong move back above $110,000 would invalidate the lower high setup and put the breakout narrative back in play.

Right now, the market is at a decision point. The trend hasn’t broken yet, but structure is starting to crack. A confirmed lower high at $110,000 – followed by a break below $100,000 – would mark the first significant trend shift on the daily chart in months.

Stocks, Dollar Drop

Markets pulled back across the board as rising geopolitical tensions and renewed trade threats triggered a broad risk-off tone. S&P 500 futures fell 0.5%, positioning the benchmark index for its first back-to-back loss of the month. Global equities also retreated, while the dollar slid to its lowest level since 2022, down 0.5% on the day. Treasury yields declined ahead of a $22 billion 30-year bond auction, which is expected to serve as a key gauge of investor demand amid growing deficit concerns.

Investor sentiment turned sharply cautious following comments from former President Donald Trump, who signaled plans to impose unilateral tariffs on dozens of U.S. trading partners in the coming weeks. The announcement injected fresh uncertainty into global trade dynamics and coincided with a flare-up in Middle East tensions. U.S. authorities ordered the partial evacuation of embassy staff in Baghdad after Iran reportedly threatened to strike U.S. military bases if attacked. Meanwhile, CBS reported that Israel may be preparing for a direct operation against Iran, further heightening market anxiety.

The shift in tone has stalled a powerful rally in U.S. equities, which had recently brought the S&P 500 within striking distance of its all-time high. While resilient corporate earnings and limited economic fallout have helped fuel the run-up, traders are now questioning how much more upside remains. Some analysts see a modest technical correction as a healthy pause to consolidate gains and reassess support levels.

The upcoming 30-year Treasury auction is drawing particular attention as Congress continues to debate Trump’s proposed tax legislation, which some forecasts suggest could add trillions to the national deficit. A weak auction could spark fresh concerns about long-term debt sustainability and issuance capacity. According to Natixis Wealth Management’s Benoit Peloille, investors may also be watching closely for any potential reaction from Trump, should the auction disappoint.

The dollar's decline reflects broader pressure, with its year-to-date losses now exceeding 8%. Softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data has led traders to fully price in two quarter-point interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Upcoming producer price data, due later Thursday, will offer additional insight into the inflation outlook and monetary policy trajectory.

Oil prices gave back some of Wednesday’s surge, as traders weighed the implications of geopolitical risk against trade uncertainty. Brent crude slipped below $69 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate approached $67. Despite the pullback, underlying tensions in the region continue to keep energy markets on edge.

In corporate news, a Boeing 787 operated by Air India crashed shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad en route to London, in what could become the most serious accident involving the model to date. Tencent is reportedly exploring a potential acquisition of Nexon to boost its gaming portfolio, while Deutsche Bank expects a stronger second quarter in its fixed income and currency division despite a rocky start. Bunge is awaiting final approval from Chinese regulators on its $8.2 billion acquisition of Viterra. Meanwhile, New World Development has secured 87% of commitments for its $11.2 billion loan refinancing.

Elsewhere, Airbus projected that the global commercial aircraft fleet will double over the next two decades, driven by demand from emerging markets like India. Oracle shares rose 7.6% in premarket trading after the company forecast more than 70% growth in cloud infrastructure sales for the new fiscal year.

Key Events This Week:

Thursday, June 12

• 8:30 AM ET – Producer Price Index (PPI) – May
  Measures changes in selling prices received by domestic producers; provides insight into inflation at the wholesale level.

• 10:00 AM ET – Quarterly Services Survey – Q1
  Offers data on revenue and expenses across U.S. service industries.

• 1:00 PM ET – 30-Year Treasury Bond Auction
  Provides information on investor demand for long-term U.S. government debt.

Friday, June 13

• 10:00 AM ET – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Preliminary June
  Gauges consumer confidence and expectations, influencing consumer spending behavior.

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

• S&P 500 futures fell 0.5% as of 6:10 a.m. New York time

• Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.4%

• Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%

• The Stoxx Europe 600 fell 0.8%

• The MSCI World Index was little changed

Currencies

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%

• The euro rose 0.7% to $1.1573

• The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3575

• The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 143.71 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin fell 1.4% to $107,416.93

• Ether fell 2.4% to $2,749.14

Bonds

• The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.38%

• Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.48%

• Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 4.51%

Commodities

• West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.5% to $67.12 a barrel

• Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,363.83 an ounce

Ukraine May Let Central Bank Hold Bitcoin In National Reserves

• Crypto asset reserve bill lands in Ukraine’s parliament

Ukrainian lawmakers have introduced a bill that would allow the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) to add cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin to its official reserves. The proposal seeks to amend existing legislation to classify crypto assets alongside traditional reserve assets such as gold and foreign currencies.

Notably, the bill doesn’t mandate crypto accumulation — it simply empowers the central bank to do so at its discretion. The NBU would have full authority over whether, when, and how much crypto to hold.

This is a smart approach to policymaking: flexible enough to pass without resistance, assuming the decision-makers aren’t anti-crypto, while still opening the door for future adoption.

MP Yaroslav Zhelezniak, who announced the bill, said the aim is to align Ukraine with global financial innovation. He added that responsibly managing crypto reserves could enhance economic stability and foster digital economic growth.

Stripe Plans To Buy Crypto Wallet Privy

• Privy and Stripe: Bringing crypto to everyone

Stripe, the household payments giant we are all familiar with is acquiring Privy, a crypto-focused developer platform that simplifies wallet integration and digital asset use. Despite the acquisition, Privy will continue to operate independently. The goal is to enhance service speed and quality for users. For those who don’t know, Privy was founded to make crypto products feel as smooth and user-friendly as any other web tool, starting with better wallet experiences. It now supports over 75 million accounts and works with more than 1,000 developer teams, powering billions in transactions.

Privy has enabled projects like Hyperliquid, Blackbird, Toku, and Farcaster to innovate in trading, payments, payroll, and social networking using crypto infrastructure. According to the PR announcement: “Stripe believes in the power of bringing crypto and fiat closer together, marrying these systems so deeply that the distinction becomes almost meaningless. Joining Stripe will accelerate our work to shape this future and provide powerful new capabilities to Stripe and Privy customers alike. Together, we can change how value moves through the Internet.”

Bank of America Is Launching A Stablecoin

• Bank of America is Reportedly Launching its Stablecoin Soon

Crypto doesn’t need another stablecoin – but that hasn’t stopped Bank of America from convincing itself otherwise.

CEO Brian Moynihan confirmed the bank is actively developing a fully dollar-backed stablecoin. Details remain vague – there’s no timeline, no public name, and no clear use case – but the project is underway. It’s part of a broader trend of traditional banks dipping their toes deeper into digital assets. Moynihan even said earlier this year that launching a stablecoin is no longer optional if the bank wants to stay competitive. There’s been some speculation about a possible partnership with JPMorgan, but nothing has been confirmed.

Zooming out, the entire idea feels off.

Fast forward five to ten years – maybe even sooner – and it’s hard to imagine a market flooded with dozens of competing stablecoins. Consolidation seems inevitable. Giants like Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC) are likely to absorb smaller players, swallowing their AUM and reserves. That’s how most mature markets evolve.

So why is Bank of America entering the fray now? Hard to say. With robust, battle-tested stablecoins already dominating the space, launching a new one from scratch feels less like innovation and more like duplication. Unless they offer a radically new value proposition – and there’s no indication they will – it’s hard to see this ending in anything but acquisition, irrelevance, or both.

GameStop Wants More Bitcoin - LFG!

• Click HERE To See The Post

I’m genuinely pumped to see GameStop doubling down on its Bitcoin strategy. At first, it felt unclear – was this a headline grab or a legitimate long-term play? But with this latest move, the picture’s becoming clear: GameStop wants more Bitcoin – and they mean business.

What makes this especially compelling is that GameStop isn’t your typical corporate Bitcoiner. This is a household name with deep cultural relevance – a publicly traded company since 2002 with decades of brand equity. They’re not some fly-by-night tech startup or obscure treasury experiment.

If GameStop continues down this path, it could be a turning point. Their move has the potential to normalize Bitcoin at the corporate level – not just as an asset, but as a treasury standard. And because of their visibility and cultural cachet, other companies might start to see Bitcoin not as a fringe play – but as a credible, strategic asset class.

This isn’t just another Bitcoin headline. It could be the start of a broader corporate shift.

I’m rooting for GameStop.

He Put 80% Into Bitcoin, Now He’s Calling Out The Government | John Deaton

I sat down with John Deaton live in Las Vegas for one of the most powerful and emotional conversations we’ve ever had on The Wolf Of All Streets. We talked about why he went 80% into Bitcoin, how his fight against the SEC was never about XRP, and why real crypto legislation is urgent before politics flip again. If you care about financial freedom, self-custody, or fighting government overreach – this episode is a must-watch.

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X - I spend most of my time on X, contributing to CryptoTownHall every weekday morning, sharing random charts, and responding to as many of you as I can.

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The views and opinions expressed here are solely my own and should in no way be interpreted as financial advice. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision. I am not a financial advisor. Nothing contained in this e-mail constitutes or shall be construed as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations of an investment strategy or whether or not to "Buy," "Sell," or "Hold" an investment.